I published this earlier this year. As we head into another year I thought I would replay it.
A megatrend is a large trend that deals with large-scale change. As I wrote in Future Friday: Can you tell the difference between Fads, Micro Trends, Macro Trends, and Megatrends? “Megatrends are the long-lasting, years in developing, things that shift the world.” Gartner has identified three technology megatrends, as they reported in Gartner Identifies Three Megatrends That Will Drive Digital Business Into the Next Decade. These include AI or artificial intelligence; transparently immersive experiences (Virtual reality); and digital platforms which will include the Internet of Things. All of these have been in the works for a while, with increasing impact. Of these three AI is considered to be the most disruptive.
How disruptive will AI be?
According to Gartner “AI is changing the way in which organizations innovate and communicate their processes, products and services AI continues to drive change in how businesses and governments interact with customers and constituents.“ Additionally, they observe:
“At some online publications, financial summaries and sports recaps are written by artificial intelligence (AI), not humans. In the medical field, thanks to “computer-assisted diagnosis,” a computer was able to spot 52% of breast cancers based on mammography scans up to one year before the women were officially diagnosed. In some organizations, AI decides which sales opportunities are worthy of a salesperson’s time.”
It is being used heavily in deciding which candidates will be the best hires for expanding companies.
They predict that “by 2020, 20% of companies will dedicate workers to monitor and guide neural networks.” This will require new skills and a new way of thinking about problems.
They also predict that AI innovation will not come from big companies, with startups taking the leadership role by 2019, a mere year and a halfway. It is a fair bet that many of these startups will focus on “people issues”.
So AI is going to be very disruptive and HR is going to be both the victim and beneficiary of this disruption.